EGU26: Toward a Seamless Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction System for the Blue Nile Basin (05 May 2026)

By regionally enhancing ECMWF forecasting products (SEAS5 and sub-seasonal forecasts) through statistical and deep learning-based post-processing methods, a seamless S2S prediction system for the Blue Nile Basin is developed. Although the post-processed meteorological forecasts alone barely outperform climatology, they demonstrate clear added value for sector-specific decision-making when coupled with hydrological and crop models.

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