Policy Paper and Policy Brief on Forecast Dissemination in the Blue Nile River Basin published
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As part of the SPS Blue Nile project, adelphi research has developed a Policy Paper and a Policy Brief examining how climate and weather forecasts are communicated across the Blue Nile River Basin, and how governments, regional organisations and development partners can support existing systems and practices.
The Policy Paper focuses on the main beneficiaries of forecasts in the Blue Nile Basin – agriculture, dam operators and rural communities – and explores solutions that foster a cross-border approach and create mutual benefits for Ethiopia and Sudan. Based on workshops and interviews conducted as part of SPS Blue Nile, as well as contributions from local scientists and practitioners, the paper examines governance systems, infrastructure, capacity and resources for communicating forecasts across the basin.
A central finding is that, despite significant advances in forecasting science, the Blue Nile Basin continues to face a critical implementation gap: too few forecasts are translated into actionable information that reaches those who need it most. In Sudan, forecast provision has deteriorated severely due to the ongoing conflict, while Ethiopia's more advanced system faces the persistent challenge of bridging the "last mile" to remote communities. A significant access divide separates industrial users – such as dam operators – from rural farmers, pastoralists and local communities, who remain critically underserved.
The paper identifies three quick wins for immediate impact: establishing a Blue Nile Early Warning Task Force for basin-wide coordination; setting up a multi-language radio network partnering with local stations for last-mile coverage; and developing a basin-wide early-warning data and visualisation platform, possibly hosted by ICPAC. Six overarching policy recommendations address sustainable funding, minimum service provision in conflict-affected areas, diversified dissemination channels, locally tailored co-produced forecasts, African leadership in forecast systems, and improved cross-border governance.
The Policy Brief summarises these key findings in a concise format.