SPS Blue Nile at EGU26 in Vienna, Austria (3-8 May 2026)

At this year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU), held from 3 to 8 May 2026 in Vienna and online, SPS Blue Nile presents its latest research findings across four contributions – spanning seasonal streamflow forecasting, sediment transport, AI-based weather prediction, and crop simulation.

"Seasonal forecast of streamflow and suspended sediment in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia"

Axel Bronstert, Morteza Zargar, Till Francke, Worku Kindie, Fasikaw Zimale and Harald Kunstmann investigate the potential of seasonal streamflow and sediment forecasting for water resources management in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), upstream of the GERD. Using the ECMWF-SEAS5 precipitation product alongside the hydro-sedimentological model WASA-SED, forecasts with lead times of up to seven months were generated. Results show that the coupled meteorological-hydrological modelling system skilfully predicts rainfall and discharge on a seasonal scale.

Monday, 04 May, 9:03–9:05 (CEST) | PICO Spot 2, PICO2.15 👉 Read the abstract

"Toward a Seamless Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction System for the Blue Nile Basin" 

Rebecca Wiegels, Christian Chwala, Julius Polz, Luca Glawion, Christof Lorenz, Jan N. Weber, Yasir Hageltom, Windmanagda Sawadogo, Tanja C. Schober, Selina Janner, Morteza Zargar, Axel Bronstert and Harald Kunstmann present the current state of a seamless S2S prediction system for the Blue Nile Basin. The contribution evaluates state-of-the-art seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting products from ECMWF and combines statistical and deep learning-based post-processing methods – including Seasonal AFNOCast and ProS2St – with hydrological and crop models to improve sector-specific decision support.

Tuesday, 05 May, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Hall X5, X5.25 👉 Read the abstract

"Suspended Sediment Fluxes and Decadal Trends in the Humid Tropics: Machine Learning Reconstruction and Coupled Modelling in Upper Blue Nile Tributaries" 

Kindie B. Worku, Fasikaw A. Zimale, Till Francke, Morteza Zargar and Axel Bronstert reconstructed continuous daily sedigraphs for the Gilgel Abay and Gumara catchments (1990–2020) using machine learning methods, including Quantile Regression Forests (QRF). The reconstructed records enabled the first successful calibration of the WASA-SED model for coupled streamflow and suspended sediment dynamics in the Ethiopian Highlands. Decadal analyses reveal contrasting trajectories in both catchments and underscore the importance of integrated ML-process modelling for the sustainable management of the UBNB.

Wednesday, 06 May, 16:15–18:00 (CEST) | Hall A, A.104 👉 Read the abstract

"Integrating dynamic planting dates into Noah-MP-Crop for sorghum simulation in semi-arid regions" 

Yasir Hageltom, Joel Arnault, Nadir Elagib, Patrick Laux and Harald Kunstmann developed a framework for simulating rainfed sorghum growth using the Noah-MP-Crop model with dynamic planting dates derived from satellite observations (GLASS LAI). Results show that dynamic planting dates substantially improve simulated leaf area development and crop yields in the semi-arid eastern Nile Basin – a transferable approach for data-limited regions.

Thursday, 07 May, 16:40–16:50 (CEST) | Room 2.23 👉 Read the abstract